I sent this question off to my institution's Canvas Support Team over the weekend, and just received this explanation:
The reason for the inflated file size actually has to do with the quality of transcoding. We first transcode the video when its uploaded to studio at its lowest setting and then go on and transcode the video to its higher settings. If you download the video early on you will get a smaller video file because of the lower transcoding quality. If you download it later like after the captions have been generated which in this case is after the higher quality transcoding setting has been generated then the file will be larger and better quality. Studio Defaults to downloading the highest possible quality of video when downloading. This won't have any effect on streaming the video through canvas as there are multiple quality settings for different connections.
While the streaming adjustability is reassuring, I plan to stick with Zoom recordings going forward. I ran some (fair) comparisons over the weekend, finding that the files produced by Zoom remain ~5x smaller than those produced by Canvas Studio---even after I upload the Zoom file to Canvas Studio for captioning. (As always, this is with no visible change in video quality to my eye.) Zoom will also allow me to record screen-capture videos, which Canvas Studio doesn't seem able to handle on my system.
I'll leave the question 'unsolved' in case somebody might come along in the future to explain how to choose between the different video sizes when downloading.
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