After some back and forth with various levels of support, and several contradictory messages, I don't have any clear answer on what the problem was, but can say that it seems to have been resolved. First I was told the Mastery Path wasn't configured correctly, then was told that Mastery Paths won't accurately function via 'Student View'. Ultimately, I found that neither of those statements is true, and the Mastery Path in question started working again. Was something updated behind the scenes to fix it? Not sure!
So, while I don't have an answer, I have learned the following:
- In our case, the 'Conditional Release API' was *not* the problem. (Described here.)
- While Mastery Paths may not accurately preview on a test or beta instance (according to the Notes at the top of the page here), they should accurately preview using 'Student View' on a production server.
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